The penny has clearly dropped. Trump and his domesticated colony of phocine honkers and clappers have been forced to admit what the Iranians (and presumably Western intelligence agencies) have known for some time: that Iran has a pretty much immovable stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz, which has now clearly been shown to be the Achilles Heel of the US-Israeli position in the Middle East and, to some extent, of the global economy.
For reasons set out later in this essay, the CIA will have known that there was very little that the US and Israel could do if Iran chose to curtail shipping through the Strait, which developments to date have confirmed.
We can only suppose that Trump went to war knowing all of this — assuming, that is, that he listened to, and understood, what the CIA should have been telling him.
Perhaps with delusions in mind of replicating ‘the Venezuelan model’ of regime change, to justify ignoring the advice of his intelligence agency and military, he and his henchmen bet heavily on the idea that a successful decapitation strike could be made on day one of a new attack. In the US (straight-shooting) tradition, this would be carried out during negotiations with Iran. The death of the Supreme Leader would be followed more or less immediately by overjoyed citizens dancing in the streets of Tehran, mouths agape waiting for him (Trump) to decide who the next head of the Iranian Government would be.
The Iranian military would capitulate and the celebrations and feasting would begin.
Unsurprisingly. this always deeply flawed strategy (fairytale) failed, which among other things an unflustered, business as usual Iranian leadership who will have been expecting such a strike surely suggested that it would.
The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader and members of his family at their home appears emphatically to have had the opposite effect.
Compounding the First US Strategic Blunder with Another
Expounded by Trump et al. in their usual bombastic way, the fall-back position was the shock and awe ‘bomb them to smithereens strategy’, which also had a very low chance of success. Not least because, unlike the places where it had been tried and failed before, among others, Iran is, first, an ancient civilisation that has occupied more or less the same territory for thousands of years; second, it has substantial, loyal, well-trained and well-equipped armed forces supported by very large militias; third, it has many thousands of drones and missiles and well developed – and widely dispersed and hidden – manufacturing capacity to keep producing them; fourth, during its war with Iraq and historically it has shown the strength and durability to sustain hundreds of thousands of casualties in defence of the homeland; fifth, it has decentralised its military and political leadership; sixth, it covers a geographical area roughly the size of France, Germany, Spain and the UK combined; seventh, it has a population of more than 90 million, a large proportion of which is religiously and ethnically homogeneous and therefore cohesive; and seventh, the experience of past wars has demonstrated unequivocally that the carpet bombing of civilians and civilian infrastructure (as is happening now in Tehran and other Iranian cities) stiffens the resolve of the local population and increases their hatred of the aggressor and their thirst for revenge, which can last for generations.
Despite the high likelihood that both strategies would fail, and that he would have been informed of this, Trump’s mental state, stupidity, avarice, arrogance, simple-minded approach to geopolitics, and political dependence on Israeli billionaires pretty much ensured that sooner or later he would do as he was urged by Netanyahu
The Iranians, whose planning will have anticipated this. have therefore been preparing a long game that will inflict high levels of chronic pain on the Trump administration where it will hurt the most, so far with considerable success.
The US citizens who voted Trump into power – most of whom occupy the bottom half of the US population that has about a mere 2.5% of national wealth – will feel very keenly the dramatic rises in gasoline and food prices caused by the Iranian grand strategy of controlling the Strait of Hormuz. The careful targeting by Iran of vessels owned by the US or countries sympathetic to it is designed to bring this about.
The economic and financial chaos already caused by the restrictions placed on shipping through this carotid artery of global energy supply and other critical products that include the essential ingredients of fertiliser provides strong empirical confirmation of the validity and effectiveness of the Iranian strategy.
Meanwhile, an apoplectic Trump is scrambling for quick fixes, including requests (and thinly-veiled threats) to NATO members and even China for the supply of naval escort vessels, which so far have been spurned.
All this of course means that Iran will do everything in its power to retain control.
It is just as clear that it is in the interests of Russia and China for Iranian control to be maintained. If the war continues and escalates, the already considerable support provided to Iran by Russia and China is therefore likely to increase accordingly.
Other countries currently on the sidelines may well join in on the Iranian side.
Iran’s Arrows
The maintenance of Iranian control will be made easier by the fact that the technologically asymmetric warfare employed so effectively by them thus far – aerial attacks by large numbers of low-cost drones that trigger very high-cost missile defence systems coupled with the introduction of more powerful and faster missiles as air defences are depleted – is likely to be repeated in its management of the Strait.
At sea, the Iranian versions of Paris’s arrow are manifested in its flotilla of low-cost, easy to produce, high-speed missile-armed small surface boats; midget submarines; remote-controlled unmanned vessels; and its mine laying capacity, which includes large numbers (many of Russian and Chinese origin) of conventional contact and acoustic mines as well as remote-controlled ones.
In addition, the 100 or so miles of mountainous coastline on the Iranian side of the Strait and a further 300 miles or so adjacent to the waters just beyond are likely to be riddled with difficult-to-detect and destroy honeycombs of underground short and medium range missile silos and launchers, and – possibly – artillery.
That terrain would be extremely difficult for an invading military ground force to occupy and hold without sustaining massive casualties.
Conclusion
Very cleverly, the Iranians have turned conventional ‘big bang’ warfare on its head, transforming a US and Israeli strength into a weakness that cannot be rectified quickly, easily, or cheaply.
It seems more than likely that Russia and China will have been working closely with Iran on the development and implementation of this strategy and will be watching developments with great interest and, so far, with considerable satisfaction.
The obvious danger is that with or without US approval an increasingly desperate Israel will resort to using tactical nuclear weapons and that Iran – which, if it does not already have them, is probably developing them apace – will be forced to retaliate.
The post Iran’s Arrows and the West’s Achilles’ Heel appeared first on Dissident Voice.
This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Peter Blunt.