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Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS), already a long-neglected condition, has been thrust into the spotlight by COVID-19. ME/CFS is characterized by debilitating fatigue, post-exertional malaise, cognitive impairment, and unrefreshing sleep. The projections we summarize in this essay underscore the profound and growing public health burden posed by ME/CFS in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. An estimated 5.7 million individuals in the United States now are potentially affected by ME/CFS. The condition demands urgent attention not only for its debilitating impact on individual lives but also for its substantial economic ramifications. The estimated annual cost of ME/CFS, ranging from $225 billion to $305 billion, reflects both the direct strain on healthcare systems and the indirect costs of lost productivity and diminished quality of life.
Below we indicate how we came up with these figures. The best estimates of how many people have been affected by COVID in the US, extrapolating data from the Household Pulse Survey, is about 64%. With an estimated current US population of 342.2 million, that translates to about 219 million people having gotten COVID.
Among this group, some go on to develop ME/CFS. Rates of ME/CFS are high for those who are from more clinic-based samples, as reported by Dehlia and Guthridge, whereas rates from more community-based samples such as from RECOVER and the CDC tend to be lower, in the 3-4% range. However, these estimates do not remove those who have exclusionary illnesses, such as cancer, that could be causing the symptoms. Based on these estimates and some reports of lower rates, we conservatively estimate 2% will experience ME/CFS onset following COVID.
Assuming a 2% ME/CFS incidence rate, we predict roughly 4.38 million cases of post-COVID ME/CFS in the United States. Although it is too soon to know the post-COVID ME/CFS recovery rate, most ME/CFS studies report that few recover, so we will assume a 5% recovery rate in line with past studies, so that would give us a post-COVID ME/CFS prevalence of 4.16 million.
In a previous paper we had published addressing ME/CFS prevalence prior to the pandemic, we estimated 1.49 million such cases of ME/CFS, which translates to 1.54 million cases presently taking population growth into account. Summing the non-COVID-related ME/CFS prevalence of 1.54 million and the post-COVID ME/CFS prevalence of 4.16 million gives a total ME/CFS prevalence of about 5.7 million.
The yearly per-person medical expense cost, with increases due to inflation, gives a range of $5,207 to $19,289 per person, and applying this to a prevalence of 5.7 million gives a range of $29.7 billion to $110 billion. The estimated annual per-person lost income for a person with ME/CFS, adjusted for inflation, gives a figure of $34,156 per person, and applying this to a prevalence of 5.7 million gives a figure of $195 billion. Adding the estimated annual medical expenses and annual lost income in the US due to ME/CFS gives a range from $225 billion to $305 billion.
These figures challenge longstanding underestimation of ME/CFS prevalence and impact, and they call for a recalibration of national health priorities. Increased federal investment in biomedical research, development of evidence-based treatments, and the establishment of comprehensive care infrastructure for those affected by ME/CFS are imperative. Moreover, the syndemic relationship between COVID-19 and ME/CFS highlights the urgent need for post-viral surveillance, early diagnostic strategies, and preventive public health planning. Whether this moment catalyzes meaningful scientific and policy advances will depend on the willingness of stakeholders across health systems, government, and society to respond proportionately to the scale of this emerging crisis.
The post Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome and COVID appeared first on CounterPunch.org.
This content originally appeared on CounterPunch.org and was authored by Leonard Jason – Arthur A. Mirin.